Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Tuesday, 1 March 2022. The runner's highlighted are our #BlackBook runners (the key runners of focus), while those included in the 'other' section of each race are additional runner's that have jumped out well enough to be worth noting. Our figures and benchmark ratings are from PuntingForm.
BENDIGO - Race 1
OTHER
Hard to ignore #6 SHALAMAN’s $700k price tag and quite hard to ignore his jump outs. In his first jump out on Feb 2, the 2yo colt led them up over 750m and went to the line under a hold with no jockey pressure as he was run over very late by Prado (who ran 2nd on debut at an SP of $1.40). He then went to the official trials on Feb 7, again finishing 2nd where he again showed good gate speed to lead them up but was just beaten by a ridden out Star Harmony (un-raced). He stepped up to 1000m in Heat 3 on Feb 23 in his most impressive bit of work, showing his customary gate speed to lead them up before getting a couple of small reminders at the top of the straight and opening up a gap on the field in a matter of strides and winning with ease. The time was slow for the day, but the style in which he won was very impressive and he’s certainly one we want to watch for a debut.
OUR THOUGHTS
Bendigo, Race 1 - SHALAMAN
Mark Zahra heads to Bendigo for just the one ride on CROSSWINDS who debuts on the back of two jump outs, the first on Feb 2 over 750m where CROWNING MOMENT had him covered and another on Feb 14 at Werribee which was a nice win as he showed a turn of foot late when he got the gap.
CROWNING MOMENT debuted in the Blue Diamond prelude and was quite disappointed. He gets the blinkers and tongue tie for the first time here - as mentioned, he had CROSSWINDS covered in that first jump out so on the back of the race fitness and experience, he looks over the odds at $9+ compared to the ~$3.
SHALAMAN clocked 47.87s for his Feb 2 jump out vs 47.74s for CROWNING MOMENT and CROSSWINDS. Think he looks very talented and with barrier 2 here, he'll either lead or sit just behind the leaders and have one last crack - Ben Melham is flying since he returned as well.
SHALAMAN on top but not too keen to dive into the ~$2 odds so we'll look to play the SP.
Bendigo, Race 2
We were on EXTREME EMOTION in both of her first two career runs but she couldn't quite get the win - those runs rated +7.4 and +5.1, which are both better than any in this race besides OVER BOOST who rated +7.1 first up but was poor. Haven't seen a jump out at all for EXTREME EMOTION ahead of her return here, so very hard to get a gauge on how she's going and she's $1.65 so a no play but should be winning this based on form.
OVER BOOST is an interesting one, dropping back form a poor 1300m first up to 1000m here, which may suit and we have see an improved run. One to keep an eye on.
Bendigo, Race 4
BRITISH COLUMBIA scratched due to the track being a Soft7, which might be a good result. They obviously want to get that maiden win and know he's better on the good tracks so certainly monitoring where he goes.
OUR BETS
As a rule of thumb, our new 'units' system will be based on the following staking plan:
0.25 units is a speculation ('spec') bet at a bigger price.
0.50 units to 1.00 units is a low confidence bet.
1.00 units to 2.00 units is a medium confidence bet.
2.00 units to 3.00 units is a high confidence bet.
5.00 units is the maximum bet and is a 'special', or a very high confidence bet.
In addition, we'll put more of an emphasis on our highlighted runners (medium to high confidence bets) and lower bets on our 'Other' runners (low confidence). This is because the highlighted runners are striking at much more favourable 31% WIN & 62% PLC since August 2020 for 600+ runners.
We recommend you have a TAB, TopSport (click here), Bet365 and Betfair account.
Total outlay is 1.50 units.
Bendigo, Race 1
SHALAMAN ~ 1.50 units WIN @ Betfair SP
Overall (since 21 Oct, 2021): -3.94 units at Recommend Price | +32.38 units at Betfair SP
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