Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Tuesday, 28 February 2023. All #BlackBook runners come from our weekly reviews and our split into two categories - these are are summarised in our "BlackBook Runners - Tips Summary" with our confidence and thoughts. We have also included some runners in our "BlackBook Runners - Watchlist" that are those worth keeping in mind if you're playing the race. For information on our staking, see here.
BENDIGO - Race 2
OTHER
#1 ALL SASSED UP is the obvious one from Heat 10 on Feb 20. She is race fit though having had the two starts this prep and really should be winning a jump out in this style but still a nice win nonetheless. She will be hard to beat in any maiden next start.
Another nice jump out win from #4 MISS SUBTLY, winning Heat 8 on Feb 13 quite comfortably as she travelled beautifully on speed and did it all under her own steam. We mentioned her following her Jan 30 jump out and also mentioned her form that has 4x 2nd’s from 4x starts having run into some smart ones in all of them including Manhattan Thunder (then ran 4th at Caulfield behind Boogie Dancer), Nanagui (won Listed race next start), Clarity (since 2nd in BM78) and Sweetened. She’s certainly got a maiden win in her and we’ve got to keep an eye on where she goes first up this prep.
BENDIGO - Race 3
OTHER
#3 NORWEGIAN JOY is the younger brother of Norwegian Bliss with three 1200m trials and jump outs under his belt now, the first two in Sydney when with Robert Quinn and the latest in Heat 16 on Feb 13 where he won, going to the line alongside Nonconformist which is very good form for a 3yo maiden. He’ll likely head to a 1400m maiden on debut and likely gets out even further.
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BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - TIPS SUMMARY
Runners | Confidence - Comments |
Bendigo, Race 2 | This looks a race between Miss Subtly and All Sassed Up, so at $1.75 & $3, it's hard to play either of them as per yesterday so a no bet race for us. |
#1 ALL SASSED UP (8) - M Price & M Kent Jnr | She obviously failed first up in a BM70 at Sandown where she had a slow recovery. She then went back to MDN grade, finishing 2nd to Tanto (since 2nd BM58) while ahead of Capodistria (since 1st MDN) and Chiaro Di Luna (since 3rd MDN at Pakenham) - good form! She's had a jump out in between, which was super too and you'd think third up now she'll be peaking and ready to win. |
#4 MISS SUBTLY (5) - G Begg | She did all but win in her debut prep, but has nice form on the board now with that race experience so adding that to some slick jump outs and the fact that she sees a dry track for the first time in her career, she deserves to be favourite and looks the one to beat. |
Bendigo, Race 3 | |
#3 NORWEGIAN JOY (4) - M Price & M Kent Jnr | Medium. Doubt you'll see too many 3YO geldings on debut over 1500m who split Nonconformist and Lunar Flare in their recent 1200m jump outs, that's super JO form and liked how he kicked back when Nonconformist heading him. The 4th horse in Easterley has since won by 2.5L too and the trial prior in NSW, he ran 2nd to Clear Choice who has since won a MDN. This son of Tarzino will get out over further and he's giving some fitness to his main dangers in the market, but he's drawn for a beautifully run from barrier 4 where we'd expect him to not be far off the speed. He's the one to beat and happy to bet. |
Last Updated: 8:21am AEDT on Tuesday, 28th February 2023.
STAKING
We know that everyone takes a different approach to their staking, which is why we don't delve into specific staking for each of our runners and we leave how you stake and bet our runners completely up to the individual.
Personally, we have followed different staking systems over the years to fine tune our own punting, but have found that the most profitable approach is to follow a "Collect system".
This system means that the punter (us) bets on the win only (no place bet) to collect 4% of our bank on every BlackBook runner we have. To begin, you need to select a starting bank - as an example, a starting bank of $10,000 will see us betting to collect $400 (4%) on each runner.
If a runner is $2, we will bet $200 @2 to collect $400.
If a runner is $20, we will bet $20 @20 to collect $400.
If a runner is $3.50, we will bet ~$114 @3.50 to collect ~$400.
We highly recommend having a read of the below PDF document from Dan O'Sullivan in regard to the Six Rules to Increase Profit, Staking like a Professional and Punting As An Investment (see here):
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